The Dow Is Going Bearish

The NASDAQ stock exchange moved up about three points yesterday to hold over 2300. This is the highest it has been in five years. The market appears to be strong when it comes to this exchange.

However, the Dow Jones has declined in value by giving up 65 points. It is now it 11,150.70, a value that is under its 20-day moving average.

The S&P did not do any better than the DJIA. It went down by 2.64 points during the same trading period.

Small-cap stocks are also holding steady in the area even after getting to a new historic high recently. The Russell 2000 went down by 1.58 points on Wednesday. However, the small-cap performance barometer has reached 13.28% this year. This makes for a good increase but at the same time I am concerned about the potential for the index to keep on going up after a while.

The commodities industry appears to have a few changes as well. The May light crude futures report on the NYMEX went to $67 a barrel. This is a big move after a rectangle formation around $61 to $65.50 had occurred. It's estimated that oil could get to the $70 a barrel range like it did back in February but this is only if the value can hold for now. There's also the need to watch for how much money it will cost to get oil as prices tend to cause stocks to feel the heat.

NASDAQ trading featured about two billion shares in the last three trading days. The trading volume in the NASDAQ was around 2.22 billion yesterday. It is slightly over the moving average from the past five and ten trading days. This is particularly interesting considering how the market has increased slightly during these strong trading days.

Trading picked up a bit on the NYSE as well. The trading was at 1.61 billion shares on Thursday. This was over the five and ten day averages of 1.55 billion each.

The NASDAQ appears to be bullish for the most part but there are some weak spots to take a look at as well. The Relative Strength of the NASDAQ exchange is strong and could show gains. The index is over its last pivot point of 2332.95. It is also over its twenty and fifty day moving averages.

The MACD appears to be something worth buying as well. The MACD trend has been negative but it appears to be going over. The trend has been in a sideways channel for the most part and has experienced some high values that could get to be near 2387. The index is traditionally overbought so there are some risks to take a closer look at.

The near-term signs on the market have weakened on the Dow Jones. The DJIA was in a bullish trend but it fell below its 20-day average of 11,156. This means that the market could fall if the average cannot hold. In addition, the Relative Strength is showing a loss while the MACD is at a moderate sell.

The DJIA has to stick around its 20-day moving average if it is going to be viable. The DJIA has to get there or else it could go down to 11,000. A rebound can result in a pivot point closer to 11,234.

The Bollinger Bands have been trending up and are suggesting that the market might become volatile. This means that things could go either way at this particular point in time.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has a bullish look with a relative strength above neutral. The index has a netural MACD and is over its twenty and fifty day moving averages at 1,294 and 1,283. The next target is around 1,310 with the market needing to stick at a twenty-day moving average of 1,294 in order to stay strong.

The Russell 2000 has a bullish look to it with a good relative strength and MACD. It also went over its pivot point at 745.18. However, there are no guarantees that this will hold after a while. The small cap stocks have experienced limited lows.

The Russell 2000 could keep moving up but there are concerns about how people buy stocks here. The index is historically known for being overbought for the most part. The area of resistance for this exchange is listed at 772 and 803.

The advance-decline lines are also different for each exchange. The NYSE has a mixed 0.77:1 rate while NASDAQ is up higher at 1.004:1. The daily A/D on the NASDAQ has been over one for most of the last few sessions while the five day moving averages are at 1.42:1 for the NASDAQ and 1.27:1 for the NYSE.

The new high new low ratio is above the 70% level for NASDAQ. It has been like this for fourteen days in a row. The stocks have come in at 89.35%.

Also, the NHNL ratio is 82.69% for the NYSE. It has been over the 70% rate for fifteen consecutive sessions.

The DJIA will have more pressure for selling with a bearish market in spite of a weak status. There should be some support coming as the index is sold a little higher.

Also, tech stocks will continue to help some of the stocks. It is still important to watch for how the NASDAQ is oversold while the Russell 2000 is overbought.

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at 7:39 PM
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